Is This The Bitcoin Bottom?
Bernstein digs in on its $150,000 Bitcoin target despite 20% stumble
The worst of the selling looks like it might finally be over for Bitcoin. (But don’t take our word for it — take it from the analyst who called the crash before it happened.)
This week, we’re chatting with Fundstrat’s Head of Digital Asset Strategy Sean Farrell to find out what he sees in his crystal ball. But even before we do, the Coinage community might be front-running the bottom call — with members in our vote unanimously saying that now is the time to rotate back into Ethereum.
Here’s why more signs are pointing in a positive direction.
Digital Asset Outflows Recover
After two big down weeks, CoinShares clocked net outflows in digital asset funds at just $187 million. Even as prices continued to trend lower, investors mostly held steady in the crypto ETFs.
That begged the question that many tried to answer — what exactly triggered the 20% collapse in Bitcoin prices? Some speculated there was a Hong Kong fund that was forced into scramble mode. Others blamed Wall Street plowing into options around BlackRock’s IBIT Bitcoin ETF. It seems like there may be a mix of things that eventually come to be revealed as the triggers to blame. But not knowing for sure also complicates calling the bottom.
That said, Bernstein analysts were out today mentioning that they are in the camp that we are past it. “What we are experiencing is the weakest Bitcoin bear case in its history,” the analysts wrote. They also reiterated their $150,000 call for the end of the year and refuted that anything seems broken with the Bitcoin market.
“Nothing blew up, no skeletons will unravel,” they wrote. And to be fair, sentiment among Coinage’s community seems to be matching that.
We polled our community over the weekend about rotating treasury funds back into Ethereum, and the vote was unanimous to do so (165-0).
Caveat Emptor
Notably, so far, most bottom calls we’ve heard have proven early. That is, just a week ago Tom Lee predicted Ethereum would “touch” $2,400 and quickly bounce. That did not play out necessarily, but his rationale may still be intact.
As we highlighted last week, his thesis is a rollover in enthusiasm for precious metals may be the thing that drives crypto higher once again. And while silver once again outpaced Bitcoin on Monday, the metals are reaching lower highs (for now.)
Even Coinbase Was Up Today!
And perhaps most indicative of a bottom? Coinbase was up today! Even after the Super Bowl ad that had a lot of people screaming (or singing) at their TVs. (A screenshot of one Super Bowl watch party captured in one viral tweet.)
That might mean less than the Coinbase premium improving (that is, the relative bid on Coinbase vs. other exchanges, which usually signals bullishness in America.) It’s still not back into positive territory quite yet, but certainly improving, according to CryptoQuant data:
Crypto Project of the Year Takes Over!
This weekend, Coinage’s Crypto Project of the Year was featured in tens of thousands of Brave Browser tabs.
Thanks to those of you who voted on the most promising projects in crypto — those eyes may be seeing more from Canton and from Base (both advanced in our onchain voting!)
Get caught up now on all the interviews to learn more on our YouTube page!