Inside Trump's Real Tariff End-Game (Hint: It's Crypto)
As Trump unveiled tariffs in the Rose Garden, the House was quietly approving a bill nearly a decade in the making
Bitcoin and the majority of crypto held moderate gains through the weekend even after the stock market continued its painful decline on the back of Trump’s newly revealed tariffs. That means there could be two things happening:
One, corporate buys from GameStop and Strategy could have hit on Friday and pumped the price (which likely might not last.) Or, two, the market is waking up to Trump's true tariff end-game.
You see, as Trump was revealing tariffs in the Rose Garden this week, the House Financial Services Committee was quietly approving stablecoin legislation that has been nearly a decade in the making. But why is the bill finally getting approved now? And could digital dollars on a blockchain really be that critical to Trump's tariff gambit?
This week, I caught up with the CEO of the world's largest stablecoin, Tether, to chat about what stablecoins offer the President — and whether Trump's USD1 stablecoin might eat into Tether's $13 billion in profit last year.
Trump is taking on China head-first. He's using tariffs to bring China to the negotiating table as China has increasingly grown its sphere of influence around the world. Look at the Panama Canal. Look at El Salvador. But China holds nearly $1 trillion in US Debt.
Trump has sought to achieve taking on China while also maintaining a couple things:
The dollar remaining the chosen reserve currency around the world
The US government being able to borrow for cheaper than it otherwise would
But what if China isn't there to buy US debt?
Enter stablecoins, the digital dollars on the blockchain that can exist anywhere and everywhere. Tether, the largest, has a market cap of ~$150 Billion. They made $13 billion in profits last year, despite the company only having a little over 100 employees. They also nearly matched THE UK in terms of how much US debt they bought in 2024.
And as the US takes on China around the world, stablecoins like Tether will play an interesting role: As Ardoino tells me, they buy US debt and get dollars in the hand of people in emerging markets. His selling point is that it's actually more powerful than just having a nation state buy US debt. Why?
Having a stablecoin in your wallet gives people direct access to dollars. They use, save, spend, think in dollars. In El Salvador, where Tether is based, the economy is already dollarized. Nonetheless, China paid $55 million to fund a national library and stamped China's name on it. A glowing red neon sign reads "assistance from China for a shared future."
And if there is a man who understands the significance of stamping a name on the side of a building, it might be Trump.
It's merely a microcosm, but Trump thinks that if the US is going to take on China it must be now. And he'll need a bidder of US Debt. Hence, the House moving at warp speed to pass the long-sought stablecoin bill — even with glaring warnings being brought up by Democrats.
As we’ve covered for Coinage Media that's also the reason behind the Trump family launching their own stablecoin, USD1. As Congress passes the stablecoin bill, issuers will be required to back them with US debt/cash. If Trump' trade war loses nations to buy US debt, you could turn to their people.
As Ardoino explains, the idea of democratizing America's $36 trillion in debt via stablecoins is not that crazy. That would equate to about $100K per American, or, instead America could, "find 3.6 billion people, each one of them will hold $10,000 $USDT and you cover the entire US debt. Seems crazy. Not that crazy."
Admittedly, it absolutely WOULD have been crazy just a few years ago, but as stablecoin issuers have grown over the years to be the largest buyers of US debt... suddenly, it's less so.
Stablecoins might just be the things that save Trump's tariff gambit. And when they do, Trump will get everything he sought:
Dollar remains the world's reserve currency
Interest rates drop
America still able to borrow at cheaper prices than they otherwise would
His family literally printing cash
The end-game has become crypto. Remember, follow the (Trump) money. Congress is expected to pass its stablecoin bill in the coming weeks. When that happens, the road will be clear for crypto to finally plug into the traditional banking system. It will likely lead to a massive boom (and an eventual failure at some point, but really does make you think the bull market can’t be over just yet.)
Excellent article—thank you!