Bitcoin's $70,000 Breakout Stalls, But ‘Uptober’ Heating Up

A spike in Trump's election odds is at the center of $2 billion in Bitcoin inflows

Happy Monday! Bitcoin ETFs are charging back thanks to the strongest surge in institutional demand we’ve seen since July. Across all indicators, analysts at Bernstein are saying the current setup is “screaming risk-on,” which bodes extremely well for the idea that Bitcoin could reach a new all-time high before year-end.

Per usual we discussed the biggest stories from the week in our video News Recap. Let’s get you caught up on the latest in crypto news and market action:

Bitcoin Inflows Surge

Kicking things off, Bitcoin is showing some strong signals with a notable rebound in inflows last week. The CoinShares report highlighted $2.2 billion in total inflows for digital asset investment products, the largest total we've seen since July, potentially also triggering a return of retail sentiment.

Bernstein analysts are also chiming in, noting that this isn't just hedge funds arbitraging the market anymore — there's real demand for Bitcoin ETFs, and it's shifting the landscape.

Despite Bitcoin giving back some gains to hover around $67,000 Monday morning after flirting with breaking $70,000 this weekend, it’s clear that momentum is building. Analysts suggest that the renewed interest is coming from retail investors and wealth advisors, which could provide a solid foundation for further growth.

“We believe the incremental ETF inflows are now increasingly leading to bitcoin spot demand given asset managers have focused on distribution to wealth advisors and wirehouses, unlike initial ETF demand which came from the spot-CME derivatives carry trade (mostly from hedge funds and arb funds),” Bernstein analyst Gautam Chhugani said.

For context: More than $20 billion has flowed into Bitcoin ETFs in just ten months. It took gold ETFs five years to reach that level.

Is Political Sentiment Pushing Bitcoin Higher?

One of the more interesting theories floating around is that political odds —specifically Trump’s increasing chances of winning the next presidential election —are adding to Bitcoin's upward momentum.

Trump’s odds have been rising on Polymarket, a decentralized prediction market, and some speculate that market manipulation could be at play. According to a report by the WSJ, just four accounts have plowed a collective $25 million into the betting market for a Trump win, raising questions about intent and possible manipulation.

Our take is that clearly Trump’s odds, according to most polls, are moving higher. Seems to reason that bettors could be jumping on that trend. Other than knowing the intent of these bettors, it’s somewhat impossible to fully outright claim people are manipulating the betting market.

But it also would be naive to overlook that a chart moving up and to the right wouldn’t be part of a spark that could trigger a wave of momentum to further boost Trump. Media outlets have been giving more credence to Polymarket odds — perhaps more than they should.

But coming from the world of financial media and stocks, sometimes the chart drives the story rather than the other way around. Manipulation or not, Kamala’s post-debate momentum has evaporated, and crypto is moving higher.

Memecoins or NFTs: Where’s the Value?

Shifting gears to memecoins, the conversation continues around whether memecoins or NFTs hold better long-term value.

We recently caught up with Julian Houlgan, the CEO of Doodles, who offered a counter-narrative to the memecoin mania that’s been sweeping crypto. He warned that all the excitement will eventually pop — perhaps resulting in a crash even worse than what NFTs have suffered over the last couple of years. His take was that it’s real projects like Doodles (and Coinage) that are offering value to real holders and fans that will matter more in the end than focusing on pure speculation.

Considering Julian’s background as a former Billboard executive who is now working with Pharrell, Lil Wayne, and others to boost the music coming out of Doodles, it’s interesting to see the momentum build. “We have found some semblance of product-market fit with our digital products right now,” he tells us, pointing to more than 240 million YouTube views and now 40,000 users who interact with their digital products.

Meanwhile, memecoin lovers continue to make the point that “speculation” by itself is already product-market fit enough. We are still not entirely sold. What say you?

Avalanche Summit: Big Bets on Gaming and Stablecoins

As we mentioned last week, we just got back from the Avalanche Summit in Buenos Aires. It was an amazing event filled with innovative projects and real-world use cases, including AVAX’s breakout game Off the Grid, which has now onboarded over 7.5 million wallets in just two weeks.

The massive bet on gaming is paying off, proving that Avalanche is serious about driving real adoption. Another key highlight was the rapid growth in stablecoin adoption on the Avalanche network, which could further cements the chain’s role as a leader in the TradFi space — particularly in Latin American markets where access to dollars is heavily restricted.

Overall, the summit reinforced the idea that Avalanche is making long-term, strategic bets that are starting to pay off. If you’re looking for a blockchain that's focused on real use cases and strong fundamentals, Avalanche should be on your radar.

Wrapping Up

That’s a wrap for today’s recap! With Bitcoin showing strong inflows, political odds adding a new layer of intrigue, and Avalanche pushing boundaries in gaming and DeFi, it’s clear we’re in for an exciting end to the year.

Thanks for reading the weekly Coinage newsletter! Don’t forget, you can support our community-owned outlet by sharing this newsletter with friends, by scooping up a Coinage NFT, or by staking with our community validator!